Why I Expect a Bounce Next Week – A Few Oversold Indicators

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We all know the Stock Market has taken a Shit in the past 3 days.   Even people who don’t watch the markets frequently have asked me “Brah, you see the market?!?! Whats going on?..”.   

Lets take a quick look at the SPY chart which reflects the S&P500 index below.  The SPY closed right around that 197 support area after the 2 day massive selloff.  This may provide some support for the markets and we may see a bounce Monday.

 

 

Here is a closer look at the Nasdaq dip (QQQ’s) – It breached below the 104.50 support area and kept going on extremely higher volume.

 

Below are a few overbought / oversold indicators that can be used for market breadth and overall sentiment. Most, if not all of them are indicating there should be a short term bounce in the very near future.

Percent of NYSE stocks above the 50MA – As it sits now, there are roughly 19% of stocks that are above their 50MA after the recent sell off.  If we are to assume past movement would indicate future action, stocks are due for a bounce at this area.


 

 

NYSE Bullish Percent Index – Pointing to a bounce soon

 

 

NYSE New Highs / New Lows Index – Also at its lowest level in years

 

VIX Volatility Index – Measures the fear in the market.  When the VIX spikes to these levels, it indicates there is extreme panic and the VIX is set to normalize soon which results in an upswing in stock prices.

 

Percent of NYSE Stocks above the 200MA – Another indicator at its lowest levels in years.

 

NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator – Overbought / Oversold index (One of my Faves) – Market set to rebound when at these levels

 

Percent of NASDAQ stocks above 50MA – similar to that of the NYSE but NASDAQ Stocks

 

 NASDAQ New Highs / New Lows – Currently at the same levels of the last big pullback we had in October 2014.  Indicative of a short term market bounce.

 

Disclosure: Currently long Calls in NFLX, QQQ and AAPL

 

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$ES_F – S&P Futures Down but Held Support

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The S&P Futures were down big during the night but held support and bounced back.

ES_F:

 

 

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A Few Pre-Market Gainers

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Here are a few Stocks popping up on the Gainers list

 


Underlying Change % Last Bid Last ($) Change Shortable Volume Ask
CEMP 2% 32.76 32.77 32.76 0.76   9000 33.39
ESPR 3% 93 92.2 93 2.35   3400 93.47
LBIO 3% 11.55 11.5 11.55 0.35   6200 12.5
ISIS 3% 65.5 64.58 65.5 2.13   12100 65.5
ECHO   27.63 28.41 27.63     1200 29.08
IMGN 4% 8.56 8.47 8.56 0.31   4800 8.65
HACK   27.84 28 27.84     300 28.8
ASHR 4% 42.56 42.1 42.56 1.58   70900 42.56
LFC 4% 66 65.96 66 2.45   800 66.19
SUPN   11.78 9.55 11.78     4100 12.98
UVE   24.53 24.6 24.53     200 26.99
ESLT   70.17 72.54 70.17     300 72.81
CNCE 4% 14 14.1 14 0.57   400 15.26
CRMD 3% 8.4 8.4 8.4 0.26   15900 8.74
UNH 4% 123.11 121.7 123.11 5.1   18500 124.18
ACH 5% 12.73 12.68 12.73 0.56   1200 12.74
NVAX 4% 8.58 8.54 8.58 0.36   36900 8.63
NBIX 3% 40.01 40.01 40.01 1.23   2200 41.2
MAGS 7% 5.87 5.58 5.87 0.38   9300 5.85
ADI   58.84 58.68 58.84     12000 62.78
MTW 5% 22.29 20.88 22.29 1.12   300 21.82
EJ 5% 5.65 5.33 5.65 0.29   12400 5.75
INXN   28.93 27.56 28.93     1100 31.14
PTY 5% 16.5 15.55 16.5 0.86     16.47
EHIC NoMD 9.46 8.7 9.46 NoMD NoMD NoMD 10.57
RUSL 5% 21.16 21.11 21.16 1.1 NoMD 10100 21.28
DUST 6% 18.45 18.47 18.45 1 NoMD 75700 18.51
MSG NoMD 80.73 84.1 80.73 NoMD NoMD NoMD 89
CLDN 6% 22.36 22.22 22.36 1.27 NoMD 11400 22.44
CNAT 4% 8.03 8.03 8.03 0.28     8.29
RDHL 7% 14.73 14.63 14.73 0.96 NoMD NoMD 14.72
JDST 7% 11.7 11.72 11.7 0.72 NoMD 54500 11.74
LEJU   7.91 8.3 7.91       8.5
HPTX 7% 45.83 45.83 45.83 3.09     45.85
DWA 7% 24.3 23.9 24.3 1.62     24.4
SFUN 7% 6.38 6.32 6.38 0.42     6.42
REPH   9.12 5 9.12     100 9.87
YINN NoMD 38.32 40.82 38.32 NoMD NoMD NoMD 41.35
ADXS 6% 13.97 14.01 13.97 0.82     14.4
ZNH 9% 34.92 34.78 34.92 2.81 NoMD NoMD 34.92
CEA 9% 31.45 31.32 31.45 2.61     31.42
SHI 11% 37.82 37.63 37.82 3.7     37.82
NCFT 11% 25.5 25.22 25.5 2.6      
XON 13% 48.49 48 48.49 5.49 NoMD 130900 48.5
ZIOP 14% 13.07 12.97 13.07 1.625 NoMD 481800 13.15
HZNP 18% 25.82 25.51 25.82 4.01 NoMD 140500 25.82
CTRX 25% 60.23 60.2 60.23 11.91 NoMD 5113100 60.22
ASPX 41% 100.24 100.25 100.24 29.33 NoMD 374200 100.4
ICEL 108% 16.55 16.55 16.55 8.61 NoMD 123300 16.71
DEI   29.35 29.33 29.35     16200 30.64
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S&P Futures up in Pre-Market

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US Futures are up about 1/2 a point on average across the indexes as the Nikkei is up about 1% today during intraday trading.

 

S&P Futures:

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