Why I Expect a Bounce Next Week – A Few Oversold Indicators

We all know the Stock Market has taken a Shit in the past 3 days.   Even people who don’t watch the markets frequently have asked me “Brah, you see the market?!?! Whats going on?..”.   

Lets take a quick look at the SPY chart which reflects the S&P500 index below.  The SPY closed right around that 197 support area after the 2 day massive selloff.  This may provide some support for the markets and we may see a bounce Monday.

 

 

Here is a closer look at the Nasdaq dip (QQQ’s) – It breached below the 104.50 support area and kept going on extremely higher volume.

 

Below are a few overbought / oversold indicators that can be used for market breadth and overall sentiment. Most, if not all of them are indicating there should be a short term bounce in the very near future.

Percent of NYSE stocks above the 50MA – As it sits now, there are roughly 19% of stocks that are above their 50MA after the recent sell off.  If we are to assume past movement would indicate future action, stocks are due for a bounce at this area.


 

 

NYSE Bullish Percent Index – Pointing to a bounce soon

 

 

NYSE New Highs / New Lows Index – Also at its lowest level in years

 

VIX Volatility Index – Measures the fear in the market.  When the VIX spikes to these levels, it indicates there is extreme panic and the VIX is set to normalize soon which results in an upswing in stock prices.

 

Percent of NYSE Stocks above the 200MA – Another indicator at its lowest levels in years.

 

NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator – Overbought / Oversold index (One of my Faves) – Market set to rebound when at these levels

 

Percent of NASDAQ stocks above 50MA – similar to that of the NYSE but NASDAQ Stocks

 

 NASDAQ New Highs / New Lows – Currently at the same levels of the last big pullback we had in October 2014.  Indicative of a short term market bounce.

 

Disclosure: Currently long Calls in NFLX, QQQ and AAPL

 

A Look at the NYSE McClellan Oscillator – NYMO

The NYSE McClellan oscillator ($NYMO" target="_blank">NYMO) is a market breadth indicator for the NYSE which is used to evaluate the rate of money entering or leaving the market. It has become widely used as an indicator to measure overbought and oversold conditions in the market and has proven to be very effective.

The market has recently been in correction mode and I have been watching the NYMO closely to see when the market could potentially bounce. When the NYMO reaches below -80, this indicates the market is in oversold territory and is setting up for a potential bounce. The NYMO recently hit -107 as seen below and when it has reached these levels in the past, the markets have reversed hard to the upside! As I pointed out before the Thursday reversal, the market was due for a bounce and I initiated a position in SPY calls in anticipation.

NYMO – 6 month chart:

 

NYMO – 3 Year chart: